Liberal Democrats set to gain a seat in the European Elections

12.52.34pm BST (GMT +0100) Wed 8th Apr 2009

Europe flag (flag of European Union)

The European Elections take place on 4 June this year, a new website is predicting the results at http://www.predict09.eu/default/en-us.aspx basically it looks like the Liberal Democrats will gain an additional MEP - I believe Jonathan Fryer in London will be the new MEP.

It is a little bit complicated as the number of UK MEPs reduces from 78 to 72 (across the EU there will be a reduction from the total number of MEPs from 785 to 736).

The Liberal Democrats are predicted to end up with 13, up one from 12. UKIP are set to 'lose' 8 going from 12 to 4 and the Greens wiped out losing both their seats, the Conservatives are set to remain static at 27 and Labour gain 3, increasing to 22.

I am not convinced I agree with the predictions, mainly as I don't think the Greens will lose both their seats and I suspect Labour may sneak one or maybe two but not three. Labour did very badly last time and whilst they will again the electoral system will mask this.

Electors defecting from UKIP to the Conservatives and BNP (the most likely next party to vote for) will not result in more Conservatives (on the whole) or elect a BNP MEP as the Conservatives are almost too far ahead to win any more and BNP are too far behind to gain anything.

You have to look at each region in turn to see how you vote can be best used, in some regions it will actually be sensible for people to switch from UKIP and even the Conservatives, to the most pro-European party, the Liberal Democrats if they want to kick Labour.

Of course in most regions I think people should vote Liberal Democrat but if the Liberal Democrat seat is very safe and an additional seat is unlikely then that may not be the best course of action if the aim is to stop another party for having a MEP (or more MEPs). However I suspect most people won't look at the regions and just vote how they want based on the economy.

Anyway back to http://www.predict09.eu/default/en-us.aspx they are predicting The European People's Party will still be the largest group in the next European Parliament, with approximately 249 seats, which is a decrease in percentage terms, from 37% to 34% of the MEPs. The Socialist group will win approximately 209 seats, which is a slight increase in percentage terms, from 27% to 28% of the MEPs. The Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) will secure approximately 87 seats. A new European Conservative group, composed of the British Conservatives and their allies, may be the fourth largest group, with about 56 seats. There will be approximately the same number of anti-European and Extreme Right MEPs (about 50 in total) in the new Parliament as in the current Parliament.